What Are Interest Rates Doing? Should I Purchase A House?
June 6th, 2010
Of all the decisions you have to make correctly when you are deciding on a mortgage, timing the interest rate may be one of the biggest. Will interest rates go up, in which case you should lock in a fixed interest mortgage for as long as you can, or are they headed down, which means you should either wait to buy or refinance, or choose a rate that adjusts frequently?
Understanding how interest rates behave, and what influences them, will help you make an educated guess about the direction they will take. The first thing to realize is that interest rates are just the price of money and like all prices, they are determined by supply and demand.
The inflation rate, which indicates the supply of money, is the first and most critical factor in interest rates. The inflation rate has two primary indicators. The PPI (Producer Price Index) and the CPI (the Consumer Price Index).
PPI is the measure of differences in prices in a given length of for goods at the production level. Increases in the Producer Price Index gives us higher prices for finished goods, and that means inflation.
CPI is the benchmark of the change in prices at the consumer stage, measured as a group of goods. CPI is more well known to most people because it shows whether the prices we are paying are rising or falling, and by how much. Certain segments of CPI can “”skew”" the results, so analysts frequently remove changes in food and oil prices, which are often too volatile. What remains is considered the “”core”" inflation rate which is a better indicator of overall prices and inflation.
Gross Domestic Product is another inflation, and therefore interest rate, indicator. Central banks try to foster slow, steady growth in the economy, since zero growth means recession, and too fast growth means inflation. The Fed therefore intervenes and when the economy is growing too quickly, it will raise interest rates to slow the economy down, or conversely, lower interest rates to stimulate the economy for increased growth.
Another important indicator is the unemployment level. If the economy is experiencing low unemployment, inflation will most likely follow since salaries have to go up to bring in candidates. High unemployment will typically lead to reduced interest rates since it means lower wages and therefore lower prices. Lower wages equal lower prices which means lower inflation.
Keeping track of these interest rate indicators will help you to decide when it is a good time to enter the mortgage market. In general, a slowing economy, with high unemployment, will mean that interest rates will be coming down, and you should hold off on your borrowing for a while. Increasing GDP and reduced unemployment means the economy is picking up and you can expect increased interest rates in the future.
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